25-Jun-09 Trades

Market Commentary

STI market resumed green trend today - despite flat Dow, suggesting resilience in market. Property sector led the rally. REITs stocks takes a breather, and property stocks will likely continue to rally. Construction stocks will be next, if past pattern is any guidance.

Actions Today

NOL R @ 24.5c. KEEP

Today's 2nd day of red in swarm of green is not comforting. Consolation is that the vol is low. To continue monitoring, with cut loss set at 19c.

Capitaland @ 3.79 NEW BUY

Admitedly a bit late into the game, but still attempts to ride on the property craze now.

Blog Revival

Folks, it has been close to one year since my last post. It had been a very busy year (and it will still be). So what had i been busy with? Well, what else, it got to be my job, my study (doing part time Master) and my hobby (stock trading! what else?). That leaves me very little time for blogging.

Not that now i have gotten free to blog. But i think, blogging is now a good way to record my trading thought and sharpen my skill along the way. So, lucky you, i am back. But not with a bang. Time is still precious and limited. Work is as busy as always, my study will end only in August. And now, I hope to spend more time with my family in Malaysia. As parents get old, you would really want to spend more time with them - after all the hard time they faced in bringing you up to what you are now. There is always chance for trading but your parents cant wait for you.

So, blogging once per week is perhaps the best i can do for now.

Well, my disappearance coincided with the May correction. May bloggers disappeared too - probably burnt with losses. The correction did a dent to my porfolio, but winning and losing is always part of the game. My rule is: win more than you lose.

Chinese New Year Rally!

Hi all. Looks like it has been awhile since my last update of my shares blog. Been busy with work, study and also, stocks trading! Don't worry - i didnt get burned during the red masaccre due to Japan and US. Somehow, i escaped - i unloaded just the day before. Phew...

However, how mad i am that in crisis lies opportunity. Having sold my stocks, i should have begin picking up CHEAP stocks after the major selldown.. Aaarrgh... I still have lotsa things to learn.. Anyway, market seem to get more interesting: with many stocks (china's in particular) rising jaw dropping 10% easily each day, rotationally. Oil and gas remain strong play too. And i foresee next few days this will remain the theme.

Past few days, i have been busy accumulating numerous counters. FYI - not a suggestion to buy, i acquired Aquaterra (finally it moved!! i still believe it has more room for gain), Ausgroup, Bestworld, SembKims (previous 3 all now in consolidation phase after run-up, may run again in 1-2 weeks), Shanghai Turbo (u-turn anticipated), Pine Agritech (breaking new high each day) and Ellipsiz (oh man, it ejected from consoildation phase in record speed!).

Indeed you can see i am a high risk player. But there is where i find it exciting. Perhaps, being young, i can afford to take higher risk too.

No charts for now. Meanwhile, let's wait for Cai Sen Yeh to come and distribute ang pow for next few days. Chinese New Year Rally - it may have already begun.

Dow Jones broke 11,000! STI heading towards 2500.

Yesterday night, DJ broke 11000. If it continues to inch up tonight, there will be a spillover effect to STI. However, the fact that Japan index recorded a huge drop today is a letdown. Then again, it has risen sharply since new year and no way stocks go up without correction!

I sold my Federal (half of my holdings) immediately after the announcement and i saw price weakening with huge sell down. Yes, i bought 20 lot after it broke the ascending triangle shapre several weeks ago. The other half i am keeping for the moment, as i see the inclusion of 2 influential indonesian investors may bring lotsa new contracts. Remember, connection still matters a lot in Indonesia. Nevertheless, i will monitor further; if price deteriorate further with high sell down volume - i will escape as well and park the $$ in other counters.

Right now, i am waiting for Beauty China to break 0.75 (hit 0.76). I expect Asiawater to move as well, having broke 0.445. This expectation will likely be realised if US rise tonight and Japan recover tomorrow! Afterall, ST Eng announced results in line with expectation.

Market to remain bullish?

DISCLAIMER: What follow below reflects my personal opinion and is by no mean a directive to buy/sell. You will need to exercise due diligence in making your trading/investment decision.

Last Friday began with profit taking which might lead some to believe that the market has reversed. However, the bull stepped in in the afternoon to recover the loss and even registered gains for some counters, especially index related ones like banks. Great, the bull looks still intact. I am expecting the traditional CNY rally to continue running next week.

I took the opportunity to purchase Aqua-Terra. It had just tested its long term uptrend line and rebounded well. In the short term, it emerged from the sideway consolidation after the previous short term downtrend. From price chart, it poises for an up trend in short term again. As last Friday was the profit taking day after breakout, i picked it up. With oil and gas still in play, and potentially marine too in coming week (rotational play), Aqua Terra should be able to move even further!! See my chart analysis below.

I would expect the next two weeks to remain bullish. Strong closing of Nasdaq last Friday will help tech stocks tomorrow. Human is greedy by nature, and with that in mind, i foresee next week China stocks which had extended run up to rally further. This is what happened to property stocks last year. For 2-3 weeks, they chalked up tremendous gains, some of them 100%!!! Of course, one need to increase vigility with every price increase. Once you see a major sell down, RUN. Don't ask further.

Aqua Terra



The following stocks are interesting for following:

Broke/Hitting 52 yrs high : May rise further
Ascott
BIL Int
China Sun
DBS
Hotel Properties
MMI
Manwah
Meghmani Organics
M1
Parkway Holdings
Starhub

Asiawater
Best World
Midas

Reversal (Broke out from downtrend)
CDW

One of my trading styles:
Buying stocks hitting 52 weeks high. Make sure it broke with high vol (at least 50% more than 1 week average) and close above previous high by 2 bids. Then , you have two options: buy immediately or wait for correction. Usually, after hitting new 52 weeks high, stocks tend to correct shortly to previous 52 weeks. However, if general market is bullish, and the stocks has just run up to 52 weeks high by less than 10% from last low price, i will buy in immediately. If it has run a lot, i will wait.

HAPPY TRADING/INVESTING!

STI broke 2400! and My affair with Rotary

Today is a significant day - STI broke 2400: a feat attempted numerous times several months ago but failed till today! My immediate concern is whether the STI can hold above 2400 for next few days. If it does, man, glad i am, as the next focus will be to see if STI can continue the bull run to hit 2500 by Chinese New Year.

I was extremely disappointed with Rotary: announcing big deal and yet it sank. Not the first time and yet i repeated my mistakes time and again. My first stocks trade in life: ROTARY in 2003. I bought at 0.655 after they announced JV with Tiong Woon, Federal and Hiap Seng. Thats after run up from 18 cents or so. See how amatuerish and foolish i was - buy on news.. That day and next few weeks), Rotary crashed down to 35 cent, and i was still holding...... Long term investment you see, believing it will recover. Worse i average down. Sounds familiar? Anyway, it did, to 70 over cents to then suffer one big day crash to 45 cent again.. Man, i was still holding!! Enought is enough, so i sold it at big loss - taking it as tuition fees to the market.

But again, yesterday after the news announcement, i was so bullish on Rotary. Bought some to see it tanked after opening. $535 million contract and yes, it still dropped. Easy explanation, the news was leaked way before and most people bought in anticipation of the news. Once the news was out, TAKE PROFIT. This is what we called: SELL ON NEWS.

Well, fortunately, i did make some profits (bought some upon hearing the rumour). But that brings message to me: if you see extended run up for days to weeks prior to announcement: beware, AVOID BUY ON NEWS. The risk/reward ratio is simply not favourable enough. But, vice versa. If the stock is quiet before announcement, BUY on NEWS. SembKinstrans is a very good example.

Today, i sold my holding in Fung Choi. Earned 45% out of my invested capital and think need to lock the gain. This stock been sold down for few days and i think my capital is best parked on other potential counters. Look at Beauty China. I think it still has room for run up!!

China and Oil Stocks Theme Play

First trading day of the year: WONDERFUL!

Today there was a widespread rise in most counters on STI in view of the better than expected 7.7% GDP growth. But what amazed me most is the record gains by china and oil related counters. The former due to expectation of even higher GDP growth (booming economy) for 2006. Whereas for oil sectors, seem like numerous projects announcement ongoing - eg Technics' 15 million contract.

Nevertheless, one important trading rule is:

RIDES THE MARKET TREND (sectors in play)
- its hard to beat the market, going against the trend. Winning odd is low.
- follow the trend: identify sector in play and buy the leaders.

You will find this rather rewarding!!

But beware: select good china stocks with strong fundamentals and following. Lists include, but not limited to, Celestial, Fibrechem, Fung Choi, Beauty China, Pine Agritech, China Sunbiochem, Sky China, .....

For oil stocks, Rotary is expected to make announcement tml morning! I would expect Federal and Technics to continue rising as well over a week or so.. till i see a reversal sign!

So, catch the boat before you miss it. CAPRICORN effect, Chinese New Year Rally.. odds are these will happen.

Adious.